THE COMING OIL CRISIS
Two books recently grabbed my attention:
THE PARTY'S OVER, by Richard Heinberg (2003)
OUT OF GAS, by David Goodstein (2004)
In a nutshell, here is the problem:
Global oil supplies are drying up.
Global oil demand continues to increase.
Higher prices and rationing are inevitable within a very few years.
My predictions, made in November 2004, were that the price of gas would hit $4.00 a gallon in 2006; I was too pessimistic; they "only" reached (in Colorado) $3.30. I also predicted rationing in 2007 and home heating costs to triple by 2008. I was premature in these predictions, so here are my new ones as of February 2012:
Gasoline prices will reach $4.00 a gallon in the summer of 2012.
Gasoline rationing will come in the summer of 2014.
The cost to heat your home in winter will double by 2016.
Well -- I called the 2007 prices, but the global depression hit and it now looks as if we have some room. I still think we will have gas rationing by 2014 or so. It depends how well we dig ourselves out of the depression and how quickly high mileage autos can come on the market. There is still room for optimism.